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Regression to the Mean

rih-GRESH-un too thuh meen

rɪˈɡrɛʃ.ən tuː ðə miːn

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Syllable breakdown

rihGRESHuntothemean

Dictionary meaning

The statistical phenomenon in which an extreme performance measurement tends to be followed by a less extreme one as chance variation returns toward average levels, crucial in sports for distinguishing genuine skill from hot or cold streaks.

Examples

  • The pitcher's .200 BABIP was likely to regress to the mean in the second half of the season.
  • Understanding regression to the mean prevents teams from overreacting to short-term results.

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