word

Expected Value

ek-SPEK-ted VAL-yoo

ɪkˈspɛk.tɪd ˈvæl.juː

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Syllable breakdown

ekSPEKtedVALyoo

Dictionary meaning

A probability-weighted average of all possible outcomes of a decision or play, used in sports analytics to evaluate whether a choice — such as going for it on fourth down — maximizes long-term success probability.

Examples

Expected value analysis shows that attempting two-point conversions is often optimal when trailing late.
Poker and sports share the concept of expected value as a foundation of optimal decision-making.

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