calculated gamble

Syllable breakdown

Dictionary meaning

an idiom describing a risk undertaken after careful analysis of the probability of success and the potential magnitude of gain versus loss, distinguishing it from reckless gambling by emphasising that the decision-maker has done their homework and has reasonable grounds for believing the risk is worth taking; a calculated gamble is not a certainty — it is still a gamble — but it is one where the expected value has been assessed and judged positive, and where the downside has been considered and deemed survivable; the phrase is common in military strategy, business investment, and political decision-making to describe bold actions that carry significant risk but are grounded in systematic analysis rather than impulsive hope; it allows decision-makers to acknowledge uncertainty while defending the rationality of their choices